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Ayman Grada

1016 days ago
Unfiled. Edited by Ayman Grada 1016 days ago
Libya as example of post-Arab Spring state of things. Thought it would be the shining star, and it’s not. Instead, it sucks even worse.
Democratization of violence
 
No coherent national identity. Defaulted to original culture. Transformed to political identities
Now have ISIS there. 
Want to do a study on if it will stay together, or divide. Become stable or a safe haven for ISIS.
 
One ruling family, force removed, vacuum is created. Does that have a parallel of complexity.
 
Yugoslavia example. 
 
Caring about preserving cultural identities that's been suppressed for so long, especially the Amazigh/Berber identity
Rise of political Islam. Don't recognize nation state, all should be unified. This has further weakened national identity. Cultural vs political identity.
 
  • create sufficient federalization such that various groups don't feel they're being dedicated to
 
Most of the oil is in East. South and West object to the federal system because East would control everything.
Islamist and Secular-National governments.
 
Turkey and Qatar supports Muslim Brotherhood (Political Islam)
UAE, Egypt support the secular polity 
Ayman G South has been ignored, and became a safe haven for AQIM
Weak federalist movement 
 
  • What are equilibrium for failed states? Analogues or useful models of moving to a not-failed state. Useful merits to apply to this
 
  • Secular/religious conflict of last 40-60 years.
  • Can't predict the future. If you could, everything that could be known would be known. Need a shared enemy. Will have 600 million in that area, no way to support all those people
  • ISIS as an excuse to come invade, with its resources
  • Natural gas industry in Libya, linked to Italy. Analysis based on economic interest should also take into account. I retain the inappropriateness of the frame of referene to the transnational issues like ISIS, but other states in the region as players with stakes in Libya and elsewhere. 3D Star Trek Chess.
 

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