Libya as example of post-Arab Spring state of things. Thought it would be the shining star, and it’s not. Instead, it sucks even worse.
Democratization of violence
No coherent national identity. Defaulted to original culture. Transformed to political identities
Now have ISIS there.
Want to do a study on if it will stay together, or divide. Become stable or a safehaven for ISIS.
One ruling family, force removed, vacuum is created. Does that have a parallel of complexity.
Caring about preserving cultural identities that's been suppressed for so long, especially the Amazigh/Berber identity
Rise of political Islam. Don't recognize nation state, all should be unified. This has further weakened national identity. Cultural vs political identity.
create sufficient federalization such that various groups don't feel they're being dedicated to
Most of the oil is in East. South and Westobject tothe federal system because East would control everything.
Islamist and Secular-National governments.
Turkey and Qatar supports Muslim Brotherhood (Political Islam)
UAE, Egypt support the secular polity
Ayman GSouth has been ignored, and became a safe haven for AQIM
Weak federalist movement
What are equilibrium for failed states? Analogues or useful models of moving to a not-failed state. Useful merits to apply to this
Secular/religious conflict of last 40-60 years.
Can't predict the future. If you could, everything that could be known would be known. Need a shared enemy. Will have 600 million in that area, no way to support all those people
ISIS as an excuse to come invade, with its resources
Natural gas industry in Libya, linked to Italy. Analysis based on economic interest should also take into account. I retain the inappropriateness of the frame of referene to the transnational issues like ISIS, but other states in the region as players with stakes in Libya and elsewhere. 3D Star Trek Chess.